Macro Hub 2.0

Global growth remains above trend but continues to decelerate, pointing to a slowdown rather than a recession. The US remains the strongest major economy, although its growth advantage is gradually fading. Europe, the UK, Canada, and Japan remain stuck in weaker growth and negative momentum regimes, while Australia is the strongest performer among the G6 economies. The Dollar Smile Index remains in the US outperformance zone, supporting USD strength against weaker developed-market currencies.

Financial conditions continue to ease, providing liquidity support and reducing recession risk. The VIX remains low, indicating limited market stress and a favorable environment for risk assets and carry trades. The Gold/Copper ratio remains elevated, suggesting underlying growth concerns persist despite calm markets. US rate expectations have moved higher, reflecting reduced expectations for aggressive Fed easing and reinforcing the soft-landing narrative.